UKPDS Cardiovascular Risk Engine – Version 3
Cardiovascular disease represents a serious threat for patients with type 2 diabetes, and the number of individuals suffering from diabetes in the UK is expected to reach 5 million by 2025.
The UKPDS Risk Engine, developed by researchers at the University of Oxford, is a type 2 diabetes-specific risk calculator that will support a wide range of health care professionals in educating and managing the care of patients with type 2 diabetes, including pharmaceutical companies, regulatory bodies, payers and prescribers. This software is based on 53,000 patient-years of data and provides risk estimates and a ‘margin of error’ for both coronary heart disease and stroke. The UKPDS Risk Engine is available for licensing.
The Risk Engine
Cardiovascular disease is a significant complication in type 2 diabetes and is responsible for 62% of the 2.2 million disease-related deaths which occur each year. Therefore, it is critical that we are able to understand the relationship between present-day risk factors and future cardiovascular disease outcomes, both in terms of patient education and healthcare planning.
To address this issue, a team led by Prof Rury Holman at the Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism have developed a type 2 diabetes-specific risk calculator. Based on 53,000 patient-years of data from the UK Prospective Diabetes Study, the software provides risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals for individual patients with type 2 diabetes to develop cardiovascular disease. The risk of developing non-fatal or fatal coronary heart disease or stroke can be measured for any given disease duration based on a variety of factors including:
- Age
- Sex
- Ethnicity
- Smoking status
- Presence or absence of atrial fibrillation and levels of HbA1c
- Systolic blood pressure
- Total cholesterol
- HDL cholesterol
Applications
The UKPDS Risk Engine is of value to health care providers in educating and managing the care of patients with type 2 diabetes, as well as to the pharmaceutical industry in educating physicians, payers and prescribers regarding the benefits of positive lifestyle changes and optimal blood glucose control. The UKPDS Risk Engine will furthermore be of value to insurance companies, healthcare service planners, and providers.
Software Status
The software is currently available for both commercial and academic use in the form of a standalone application for Microsoft Windows, Apple Mac, Palm and Pocket PC platforms. An Excel worksheet version is available on Microsoft and Apple Mac. The software is also available for incorporation in other software packages as an ActiveX module or as an Apple Mac shared library. For further information, and to review academic use licence terms, please visit www.dtu.ox.ac.uk/riskengine/
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